Ville

Introduction

In the winter of 2022, during a seminar on international relations at Åbo Akademi University in Finland, I encountered a transformative realisation: people genuinely see and interpret the world through theories common to international relations, such as “Realism”. This insight became particularly salient when examining public discourse from contemporary political leaders.

At first I thought that this was a rather myopic, harmful, and depressive worldview. And it is. This is what majority politicians adhere to. However, the Realism theory does predict the general behaviour of what big countries do with decent accuracy, and as such, it is quite valuable. Knowing this, we can protect ourselves from bigger, unpredictable neighbours, and play the political game knowing the rules (or lack of) and options. But at some point, one has to ask when does it become a self-fulfilling prophecy. That if we continue to play like this, we develop an arms race until we point nuclear weapons against each other. This is, unfortunately, where we seem to be going again.[1]

Finland’s president, Alexander Stubb, for instance, articulates “value-based Neorealism”[2] in his public statements and policy decisions. It is a language of power and survival, and it has become remarkably prevalent in our geopolitically tense time. Strategic calculation, it appears, consistently overshadows appeals to shared institutions and universal values.

In fact, there are high geopolitical tensions and grievances between nation-states, in all continents, Global North and Global South. Globally, democracy is backsliding and authoritarianism is creeping in globally, as per democracy indices.[3] For example, the U.S is embracing isolationism[4] and neomercantilism[5, 6] as populism with authoritarian tendencies[7] and nationalist and fascist politics[8] have increased. Branko Milanović argues that the U.S is not following populism or fascism, but anti-immigrant nationalism, nationalist anti-imperialism, profit-making, and mercantilism[9].

In response, mass marches have increased significantly in the U.S [10] since previous years, and large nonviolent, pro-democracy movements such as “No Kings”[11] and “50501”[12] movements have emerged.

To say it simply, the U.S is starting to pull back from the rest of the world, focus mainly on itself, and follow louder, angrier political movements that promise simple answers by blaming outsiders. The same is happening more and more in Europe, though there is generally more political pushback.

Realism

So what is realism? International relations scholars discern between classical realism and its modern successor, neorealism. Classical realism emphasises the role of individual leaders. Wars and conflicts arise from the personalities of great figures – their greed, their narcissism, their hunger for glory. Good leaders prevent wars; bad ones start them. The theory sees international politics as a contest between characters, where the stakes are power, prestige, and sometimes conquest[13]. That is, we would have to analyse Donald Trump to understand what the U.S is doing.

Neorealism inverts this logic. Developed by scholars like Kenneth Waltz and John Mearsheimer beginning in the late 1970s, the theory argues that the system itself – not personalities inhabiting it – drives state behaviour. In an international system where no authority sits above nation-states, where no global police enforces rules, each state must fend for themselves. This anarchic condition creates structural pressure: states must accumulate power to survive. A virtuous leader in such a system will behave much like a ruthless one, because the structure creates incentive convergence regardless of individual preference.

Thus, in this anarchic playground, survival matters above all else. Wealth becomes power, and power becomes the currency of survival. It is therefore rational, according to Neorealism, for states to hoard assets of value, whether gold or Bitcoin, precisely because such accumulation increases their capacity to endure in a world where trust is a luxury few can afford. It is all about power.

American dollar

One of the ways nation-states hold and exercise power is through money. In fact, the U.S dollar is not merely a national currency but the core infrastructure of global finance: it is the primary reserve asset, the dominant medium for international trade, the settlement layer for cross-border payments, and the unit in which commodities, debt, and risk are priced.

For most states, participation in the dollar system is not optional. Access to dollars determines access to global markets. This ubiquity creates stability and efficiency, but it also embeds asymmetric power. Because dollar liquidity ultimately flows through U.S institutions, legal systems, and political decisions, the dollar becomes a tool of economic statecraft. Sanctions, asset freezes, exclusion from payment networks, and regulatory pressure transform money from a neutral medium into an instrument of coercion, binding global economic activity to the strategic interests of a single state.[14]

The U.S Federal Reserve has stated that the “dollar will likely remain the world’s dominant international currency for the foreseeable future.”[15] This very confidence creates anxiety that drives behaviour among other states: they seek alternatives not because the dollar is failing, but because it succeeds too well as a mechanism of control.

Be that as it may, in Multicurrency Mercantilism, Kathleen Tyson contends that the international monetary system is undergoing a fundamental transformation.[16] The long-established supremacy of the U.S dollar is diminishing, giving way to a new era in which multiple currencies vie for prominence in international trade payments, central bank reserves, and the development of global financial systems.

The push toward other currencies such as euros and renminbi, currency unions[17], gold accumulation[18], and possibly Bitcoin, reflects an effort to reduce exposure to external leverage rather than to overthrow the existing order outright. Most states cannot and will not abandon the dollar standard, but they increasingly aim to dilute its dominance at the margins.

In an anarchic system, seeking monetary alternatives is not an ideological rejection of the dollar, but a rational response to a world in which financial interdependence has become indistinguishable from geopolitical risk.

Neo-mercantilism

The world has changed since the 17th century, but many people still believe in mercantilist doctrine, lately the contemporary U.S led by the Trump regime. Trump himself does think in winners and losers, zero-sum, and hence it makes sense to perceive trade as a “war”. Indeed, it is called “trade war” in American discourse. It is a tit-for-tat situation. A state who decides to say ‘no’ to certain economic decisions and relations means other states may have to say ‘no’ as well.

Mercantilism is an old idea that countries should try to sell more stuff to other countries than they buy from them, so they end up with more gold and become richer and more powerful. This is why mercantilism is appealing to people who think about the world as fundamentally adversarial. The basic logic is as follows: trade is a zero-sum game and wealth is finite. In the past, gold and silver sat in vaults and counted as a proxy of wealth. Therefore if “they” have more of it than we do, then “they” are winning and we are losing. This logic held for centuries.

I predict that nation-states are likely going to pivot back to more mercantilist approaches to maintain power. Countries are going to export more than import, stockpile gold and silver (perhaps Bitcoin and other digital assets, too), protect local industries, and promote manufacturing inland.[19] Now the latest addition is “crypto-mercantilism”[20].

Crypto-mercantilism

An economist Eric Monnet wrote on crypto-mercantilism[19]. Zeitgeist! I thought. He argues that the Trump regime promotes dollar-denominated stablecoins to keep the U.S dollar powerful around the world, so that even when people use “crypto” and particularly stablecoins, the importance of dollars does not diminish. Hence the goal is that as digital assets become popular, it nevertheless attempts to keep the U.S in control of global money. The use of stablecoins is already increasing fast, especially and primarily the dollar-denominated ones, comprising of 99.79 percent of overall stablecoin market capitalisation.[21]

The Frenchman argues that this could be really good for the U.S, but it might give other countries like those in Europe less power over their own money.

In opposition to this, Europe composed their 166-page Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation[22], in which two thirds of the articles and chapters were aimed at stablecoins, also known as either “asset-referenced tokens” or “electronic money tokens”. Therein MiCA choked the stablecoin development in Europe, and instead pushes their “digital euro” by the European Central Bank. It remains to be seen whether or not the central bank digital currency is an adequate response to the proliferation of dollar-based stablecoins, and the dollar at large.

Thus, if the U.S promotes “crypto-mercantilism”, then perhaps other states may follow suit, and particularly with Bitcoin? I predict this will happen, though it remains to be seen.

Summary

Here I tried to explain how countries act a bit like players in a very big, serious game. There is no referee, no teacher, and no one to stop fights if they start. Because of this, countries worry a lot about staying safe. They try to become strong so they are not pushed around by others. That is why they care so much about power, money, and control. In this world, it is all about power and survival.

Realism helps explain why countries behave this way. It says that even if leaders want to be kind or fair, the system forces them to think first about protecting themselves. This is why countries build weapons, compete over trade, and try to control money. Money is not just for buying things; it is a tool that can be used to reward friends and punish enemies.

When the United States uses its dollar, or when countries collect gold, create new currencies, or argue about Bitcoin and stablecoins, they are really doing the same thing: trying to stay safe and strong in a world they do not fully trust. Some countries pull away from others, some try to make their own rules, and some follow old ideas like mercantilism because those ideas promise strength.

But if everyone only thinks this way, fear keeps growing. Countries may keep racing for more power until the world becomes more unsafe instead of safer. Understanding Realism helps us see why countries act like they do, but it should also remind us to ask whether this way of thinking should always guide the future.

References

[1]
Our world in data. (2026). Military spending. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/military-spending-sipri?tab=line

[2]
Koskinen, E. J. (2025, June 17). The pros and cons of value-based realism in Finnish foreign policy.
https://eyrjokoskinen.fi/the-pros-and-cons-of-value-based-realism-in-finnish-foreign-policy/

[3]
Economist Intelligence Unit. (2024). Democracy Index 2024.
https://www.eiu.com/n/democracy-index-2024/

[4]
Steckler, J. & Mayville, R. (2025). Emerging tech and American isolationism. Consequences for AI, Drone, and Space Launch Technologies. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/emerging-tech-american-isolationism-consequences-ai-drone-and-space-launch

[5]
Helleiner, E. (2023, April 27). The Revival of Neomercantilism. Phenomenal World.
[https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/neomercantilism/](https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/neomercantilism/

[6]
Milanović, B. (2024, November 12). The ideology of Donald J. Trump.
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/the-ideology-of-donald-j-trump

[7]
Levitsky, S., & Ziblatt, D. (2018). How democracies die. Crown Publishing Group.

[8]
Stanley, J. (2018). How fascism works. Random House.
https://jason-stanley.com/book/how-fascism-works/

[9]
Milanović, B. (2024, November 12). The ideology of Donald J. Trump.
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/the-ideology-of-donald-j-trump

[10]
Chenoweth, E., Pressman, J., & Hammam, S. (2025, March 19). Resistance is alive and well in the U.S. Waging Nonviolence.
https://wagingnonviolence.org/2025/03/resistance-alive-well-us/

[11]
No Kings Movement. (2026, January). No Kings.
https://nokingsmovement.com/

[12]
50501 Movement. (2026, January). 50501.
https://www.fiftyfifty.one/

[13]
Dunne, T., Kurki, M., Kušić, K., & Smith, S. (2024). International relations theories : discipline and diversity (Sixth edition). Oxford University Press.

[14]
Clayton, C., Maggiori, M., & Schreger, J. (2024). Dollar dominance and monetary power, Monetary and Economic Department. Bank for International Settlements.
https://www.bis.org/publ/work1224.pdf

[15]
Bertaut, C., von Beschwitz, B., & Curcuru, S. (2025, July 18). The international role of the U.S. dollar. Federal Reserve.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-international-role-of-the-u-s-dollar-2025-edition-20250718.html

[16]
Tyson, K. (2023). Multicurrency mercantilism. The New International Monetary Order. Independently published.
https://spe.org.uk/reading-room/book-reviews/multicurrency-mercantilism/

[17]
Greene, R. (2023). The Difficult Realities of the BRICS’ Dedollarization Efforts—and the Renminbi’s Role. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/12/the-difficult-realities-of-the-brics-dedollarization-effortsand-the-renminbis-role

[18]
World Gold Council. (2025, June 17). Central bank gold reserves survey.
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/central-bank-gold-reserves-survey-2025

[19]
Steckler, J. & Mayville, R. (2025). Emerging tech and American isolationism. Consequences for AI, Drone, and Space Launch Technologies. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/emerging-tech-american-isolationism-consequences-ai-drone-and-space-launch

[20]
Monnet, E. (2025). Cryptomercantilism: Donald Trump’s monetary doctrine. SUERF.
https://www.suerf.org/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/cryptomercantilism-donald-trumps-monetary-doctrine/

[21]
RWA.xyz. (2026, January). Stablecoin market data.
https://app.rwa.xyz/stablecoins

[22]
European Union. (2023). Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation.
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32023R1114